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Why Most Published Research Findings Are False

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Has your instructor mentioned this author? Have you seen the author's name cited in other sources or bibliographies? Respected authors are cited frequently by other scholars. For this reason, always note those names that appear in many different sources. After a research finding has been claimed based on achieving formal statistical significance, the post-study probability that it is true is the positive predictive value, PPV. The PPV is also the complementary probability of what Wacholder et al. Abstract Summary There is increasing concern that most current published research findings are false. The probability that a research claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other studies on the same question, and, importantly, the ratio of true to no relationships among the relationships probed in each scientific field. Have called the false positive report probability 10. According to the 2 2 table, one gets PPV (1 - ) R R - R ). A research finding is thus more likely true than false if (1 - ) R.

With increasing number of independent studies, PPV tends to decrease, unless 1 - a, i.e., typically 1 0.05. This is shown for different levels of power and for different pre-study odds in Figure 2.

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Let u be the proportion of probed analyses that would not have been research findings, but nevertheless end up presented and reported as such, because of bias. Bias should not be confused with chance variability that causes some findings to be false by chance even though the study design, data, analysis, and presentation are perfect.
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